It’s the most wonderful time of the year—Oscar nominations are here! With that, we can officially start debating, predicting winners, and scouting potential spoilers for the big night.
This series won’t serve as a deep dive into each nominee, but it might just help you dominate your Oscar ballot at your friend’s Oscars party. The methodology is simple: Who’s sweeping the precursor awards that reliably predict the winners? Do they have momentum? Is there a nominee lurking in the shadows, ready to upend the whole narrative?
As of this edit, we’re still waiting on key results from the Critics Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Producers Guild Awards, and Writers Guild Awards—all crucial precursors that help shape the final Oscar race. Once those results are in (along with plenty more before March 2nd), I’ll publish my final predictions for every category.
For now, here’s a first look at the major awards.
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: The Brutalist
Spoiler: Emilia Pérez or The Substance
Overall, this is a solid lineup, but based on the awards handed out so far, Anora is going to be tough to beat. The Brutalist seems to be benefiting from a well-executed late-entry strategy, but will it be enough to carry it to victory? Meanwhile, Emilia Pérez managed to edge out Anora at the Golden Globes, but is the Academy’s love for it real? With 13 nominations—the most of any film this year—it certainly has support. Then there’s The Substance, a film I worried might struggle to break through, yet it pulled off five nominations, including Best Original Screenplay and Best Directing. For now, Anora is in the lead, but it shouldn’t get too comfortable.
Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Could Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Spoiler: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Mikey Madison takes the lead here for the same reasons Anora is out front for Best Picture—she’s racked up the most wins of any actress this season and maintained steady momentum up until the Golden Globes. Enter Demi Moore. The Academy loves a good comeback story, and there’s no shortage of past winners who’ve benefited from sentimentality. If Moore wins at the Critics Choice Awards and follows it up with a SAG victory, the Mikey Madison camp might have reason to worry. As for Fernanda Torres, she may have won the Globe, but without nominations at the SAGs or Critics Choice Awards, her chances of prevailing in the end seem slim.
Lead Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Could Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
This is the race to watch. Not long ago, after last year’s awards wrapped up, it seemed like Colman Domingo was destined to win the Oscar for his riveting performance in Sing Sing—but not everyone got the memo. Adrien Brody lives up to the hype in The Brutalist, and if any performance could derail Domingo’s path to victory, it might be this one. Meanwhile, you’ve probably seen a lot of Timothée Chalamet lately. He’s been on a nonstop promotional tour for A Complete Unknown, and sometimes these relentless campaigns pay off when the votes are cast. The Academy also seems to love the film, awarding it eight nominations, and Chalamet has the added advantage of starring in a biopic about an influential musician—an Oscars-friendly formula they never seem to tire of. For this category to feel 90% locked in, we’ll have to wait for the Screen Actors Guild Awards winner.
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Could Win: Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Spoiler: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Zoe Saldaña might be the one to beat. Out of Emilia Pérez‘s 13 nominations, this feels like the most likely win. However, Isabella Rossellini’s 3 minutes of screen time in Conclave could generate just enough buzz to spoil her night. The real spoiler, though, could come from any of the remaining nominees. Ariana Grande has been widely praised for her performance in Wicked, while the Academy might also feel compelled to ensure A Complete Unknown and Monica Barbaro don’t walk away empty-handed. As for Felicity Jones, her performance may have been written off too soon, but the reality is the momentum just hasn’t been there.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Could Win: Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Spoiler: Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Every year, there’s always at least one person we can almost guarantee will walk away with the Oscar. This year, that person is Kieran Culkin. After his standout performance in A Real Pain, Culkin has mostly swept this awards season, and if there’s any true surprise or spoiler this year, it would be if anyone other than him takes the stage for what’s likely the first award of the night. Yura Borisov has remained a steady second place with his lighthearted yet subdued performance in Anora, but he’s been unable to overcome Culkin’s massive momentum. Guy Pearce is another contender who’s been racking up wins, but is he capable of surpassing both Culkin and Borisov?
