Well, shit. That was my first thought when the SAG Awards winners were announced on Sunday. What many of us assumed would be a fairly predictable awards season has turned into anything but. Some of the major categories are still complete toss-ups, and it’s hard to recall another year where the races have been this tight.
Let’s quickly revisit the methodology: Who’s sweeping the key precursor awards that reliably predict the Oscars? Who has momentum? And is there a nominee lurking in the shadows, ready to upend the entire narrative? Unfortunately for us, all of these scenarios have played out over the past few weeks.
I couldn’t have picked a tougher year to start making predictions, but here we are. These are my final picks for the 2025 Academy Awards. Enjoy!
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
There was a time, not long ago, when I thought Anora was unbeatable. Now? I’m not so sure. Conclave pulled off wins at both the BAFTAs and the SAGs—could this dark horse really topple the beloved Anora? Despite those surprises, Anora still holds the edge, thanks to its Producers Guild Award victory and Sean Baker’s win at the Directors Guild Awards. For now, I’m keeping it as the front runner.
Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Could Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Mikey Madison is in trouble. In my initial predictions, I said that if she lost both the Critics Choice Award and the Screen Actors Guild Award, I’d have to seriously reconsider her front runner status. Well, she lost both.
Despite her BAFTA win, it’s tough to keep her in the winning column—but I’m going to anyway. Why? I think I’ve been underestimating the BAFTAs’ influence and Anora’s international appeal.
That said, Demi Moore has just as strong a chance—if not stronger. She has undeniable momentum, but did her SAG win seal the deal? The SAG Awards are voted on by fellow actors, where emotion often plays a big role. Honoring Moore with a SAG, possibly the only one of her career, makes sense. And the same logic applies to the Oscars.
It’s entirely possible that in the past few weeks, Oscar voters have decided that Mikey Madison will have to wait—making way for a veteran to take home the gold.
Which brings us to our next category…
Lead Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Could Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Spoiler: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Timothée Chalamet’s nonstop promotional tour for A Complete Unknown has paid off. With a crucial SAG win, we may finally have the clarity we need in the Best Actor race. Adrien Brody could still pull off a win, given how the season has played out, but for now, Chalamet holds a slight edge.
History is on the line. Not only does Chalamet have the chance to defeat Brody, but he could also take his title as the youngest Best Actor winner since Brody’s victory for The Pianist in 2003. He also has the “biopic advantage.” The Academy loves awarding actors for portraying historical figures, and while Austin Butler couldn’t clinch the Oscar for playing Elvis, Chalamet’s turn as Bob Dylan just might.
Want more intrigue? The last time Brody won Best Actor, he also lost the SAG. Will voters go for the young star or the seasoned veteran? I honestly don’t know. The buzz leans toward Brody, but conventional wisdom may now be tipping in Chalamet’s favor.
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Could Win: Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Spoiler: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Zoë Saldaña has made it through the rubble with only a few scratches. After a brutal few weeks for Emilia Pérez following its Golden Globe win, it started to seem like the controversy surrounding the film and its lead actress might sink Saldaña’s chances altogether. But that hasn’t happened.
So far, voters haven’t held these concerns against Saldaña, and she may now represent the film’s best—if not only—chance at winning an Oscar. However, if there is lingering animosity toward the film, the beneficiary could be Isabella Rossellini. Conclave has been surging in recent weeks, and a win for Rossellini wouldn’t be a shock.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Could Win: Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Spoiler: Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
There’s not much to debate here—Kieran Culkin has dominated every major awards show. Picking him for your Oscar ballot is as close to a sure thing as it gets, practically guaranteeing at least one correct prediction on the big night. If he somehow loses, then all of our ballots are probably doomed anyway.
Directing
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Could Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Spoiler: Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
This prediction is based entirely on Anora’s win at the Directors Guild Awards. The film has maintained its buzz since release, and while Brady Corbet has come close a few times, Sean Baker may have just enough momentum to carry it over the finish line.
However, if Baker doesn’t win, it would likely mean Anora has already had a rough night at the Oscars.
Writing (Adapted screenplay)
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, “A Complete Unknown”
Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
Jacques Audiard (in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi), “Emilia Pérez”
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, “Nickel Boys”
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield), “Sing Sing”
Will Win: Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
Could Win: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, “Nickel Boys”
Spoiler: James Mangold and Jay Cocks, “A Complete Unknown”
Writing (Original screenplay)
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, “The Brutalist”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum (co-written by Alex David), “September 5”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Spoiler: Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Documentary feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Will Win: “No Other Land”
Could Win: “Sugarcane”
Documentary short subject
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Will Win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
Could Win: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Animated feature film
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “The Wild Robot”
Could Win: “Flow”
Animated short film
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Will Win: “Beautiful Men”
Could Win: “Yuck!”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Could Win: “Nosferatu”
Costume design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
Could Win: “Nosferatu”
Film editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Conclave”
Could Win: “Anora”
Live-action short film
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Will Win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Could Win: “A Lien”
Makeup and hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “The Substance”
Could Win: “A Different Man”
Music (original score)
Daniel Blumberg, “The Brutalist”
Volker Bertelmann, “Conclave”
Clément Ducol and Camille, “Emilia Pérez”
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, “Wicked”
Kris Bowers, “The Wild Robot”
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg, “The Brutalist”
Could Win: Kris Bowers, “The Wild Robot”
Music (original song)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Will Win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Could Win: “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Production design
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
Could Win: “The Brutalist”
Sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Could Win: “A Complete Unknown”
Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Could Win: “Alien: Romulus”
International feature film
“I’m Still Here”
“The Girl With the Needle”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
“Flow”
Will Win: “Emilia Pérez”
Could Win: “Flow”
